HDB Resale Prices And Volume Rebounded In October 2023

The HDB resale volume picked up in October following relatively muted sales in the previous month. Transactions data showed that 2,198 HDB flats were resold in October, marking an 11% month-on-month increase from the 1,981 units sold in September.

A possible reason for the stronger sales could be due to more HDB upgraders transacting their flat, as they take possession of their new private homes. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said that 9,013 private homes and executive condominiums were completed in Q3 2023 – the highest quarterly supply completions since Q2 2016. Some of these units would have been purchased by flat owners looking to upgrade to a private home. They will have to sell their flat within six months after getting the keys to their new private home in order to get a refund on the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD remission).

Given the bumper crop of supply completions in Q3 2023 and the upcoming completions of more than 3,100 private homes in Q4 2023, it is likely that HDB resale volume could remain supported over the coming months, as HDB upgraders seek to sell their flats after moving into their new private home.

With the uptick in sales, the average HDB resale price found some support – inching up by 0.1% MOM to $575,453 in October, reversing the 0.5% dip in the previous month. When compared with October 2022, the average resale price rose by 1.2% on a year-on-year basis (see Chart 1). 

Chart 1: HDB resale volume and average transacted price by month

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

By flat type, the overall average resale price for executive flats climbed by 2.7% MOM, while that of 4-room flats inched up by 0.5% in October (see Table 1) following their MOM price declines posted in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the average resale price of 5-room flats softened by 0.4% MOM in October after rising marginally for two consecutive months in August and September, according to transaction data. The average price of 3-room flats was relatively flat, dipping by 0.2% MOM in October.    

 Table 1: Average transacted HDB resale flat prices by Flat Type in last six months

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

 Analysing the data by towns and flat types, it was found that the average resale prices in mature towns mostly weakened in October - potentially a sign of price resistance as buyers remain cautious. The average resale price of 5-room flats in mature towns fell by 2.1% MOM to $807,747 in October (see Table 2), while that of executive flats decreased at a similar pace to $924,029. In contrast, the average resale prices rose across various flat types in non-mature estates. Of note, the average price of executive flats jumped by 5.6% MOM to $806,461 during the month. Meanwhile, 3- to 5-room flats in non-mature towns saw an average price growth ranging between 0.6% and 1.8% MOM in October.

 Table 2: Average transacted HDB resale flat prices in Mature and Non-mature towns

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

In October 2023, mature towns made up the bulk of the top 3 lists of estates in PropNex’s ranking of average transacted resale prices on a per square foot basis ($PSF) by flat types (see Table 3). The highest average PSF price for 4-room flats was $921 psf in Queenstown, while the Central Area and Bishan garnered the highest average unit resale price for 5-room flats and executive flats in October at $1,261 psf and $707 psf, respectively.

Table 3: Top 3 towns by Average $PSF transacted price by flat type in September 2023 (and corresponding price in previous month)

Source: PropNex Research, data.gov.sg

 Based on resale transaction data, about 34.8% of resale flats sold in October were priced at below $500,000, compared to 35.8% in the previous month. Meanwhile, about 63.3% of the flats resold in October were priced at between $500,000 and just under $1 mil – up from 62% in September. The proportion of resale flats sold for at least $1 million made up 1.9% of October’s sales – easing slightly from 2.1% in September 2023 (See Chart 2).

Chart 2: Proportion of HDB Resale Transactions by Price Range

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

The number of HDB flats resold for at least $1 million dipped marginally in October – falling by 2.4% to 41 units, from 42 units transacted in September. This marks the second consecutive month of decline in the number of such transactions, after a record 54 resale flats were sold for at least $1 million in August. In the first 10 months of 2023, 377 such flats have changed hands – already smashing the record 369 unit sold in the entire 2022 with two months to spare. PropNex projects that the number of million-dollar flats sold in the full-year 2023 could cross 430 units.

Chart 3: Number of “Million-dollar” HDB Resale Flats sold By Month

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

All of the 41 “million-dollar” flats resold in October are in mature towns: Bukit Merah and Bishan (7 units each); Queenstown (6 units); Kallang Whampoa and Clementi (5 units each); Ang Mo Kio (4 units); Central Area and Toa Payoh (2 units each); and one each in Serangoon, Geylang, and Bukit Timah. By flat type, 19 of the million-dollar resale flats are 5-room units, followed by 13 units of 4-room flats, eight units of executive flats, and one 3-room terrace flat (in Jalan Ma’Mor that was sold for $1.1 million).

The most expensive HDB resale flat sold in October is at Block 96A Henderson Road (see Table 4). The 113 sq m (1,216 sq ft) 5-room flat which is located between the 19th and 21st floor fetched $1.45 million. This is the second highest transacted resale flat price in the Bukit Merah town, following the $1.5 million-deal for an adjoined flat in Moh Guan Terrace (resold in June 2023).

Table 4: Top 10 HDB resale flats transacted in October 2023 by Transacted Price

 Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

 The growth in HDB resale prices have moderated this year amidst cautious sentiment, price resistance, and the impact of cooling measures. According to the HDB resale price index, prices grew by 3.8% cumulatively in the first nine months of 2023 – down substantially from the 8.0% increase in the same period in 2022. 

Meanwhile, the ramping up of new Build-to-Order flat supply and flats with shorter waiting-time could also take some pressure off the HDB resale segment. PropNex expects HDB resale volume and prices to remain stable in Q4 2023 and into 2024.

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