Resale Condo Market Poised To Shine

著：朱家君

New project launches tend to grab media headlines, less so for resale market deals. That is not to say there aren’t gems in the resale condo segment. In 2022, more than 11,500 condos changed hands in the resale market. Despite falling short of the over 16,300 units resold in 2021, resale prices in 2022 have edged past that of the previous year. The median price of resale non-landed condos came in at $1,440 psf in 2022, up by 9% from $1,321 psf in 2021.

So, what gives?

For one, the overall uplift in home prices played a part. In addition, the relatively meagre number of new projects and unsold stock in the market – plus the higher prices of new launches - have sent many buyers to the resale market. This, coupled with the limited resale stock then helped to bump up resale prices, with some units booking substantial gains.

Here, PropNex looks at the most profitable condominium projects and districts in the resale market in 2022, ranking the top 10 performing projects and districts according to their gross profits. First, some details about the methodology which entails a comparison of resales caveats. The gains garnered for the units were derived by matching the condo resale transactions in 2022 with their previous purchase prices according to caveats lodged. The average profit was subsequently computed on a project basis or district basis.

City fringe condo projects dominate top 10 gainers list 
By ranking the average profit, the top 10 projects in 2022 comprised mostly Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) projects – there were no Core Central Region (CCR) projects that made the top 10 rankings (see Table 1).

The top 10 most profitable projects had average profits ranging from $630,000 to $1.1 million. Most of the projects were built in the early 2000s - the oldest on the list is Mandarin Gardens which was completed in 1986. Unsurprisingly, most of the projects that made the top 10 list are developments that have desirable locational or physical attributes, such as being in the city or city fringe (The Gardens at Bishan, Kerrisdale, Cote D’Azur, Heritage View), next to a waterbody (Caribbean at Keppel Bay, Pebble Bay, Costa Del Sol) or close to an MRT station (Kovan Residences, Kovan Melody).

Table 1: Top 10 resale condo projects^ in terms of average gross profit*
 

Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (data up to 13th December 2022)

^projects with fewer than 20 transactions in the month are excluded from this analysis
*Gains are derived from the resale transaction for each unit against the unit’s last caveated transaction; the average profit is determined on the profits of all resale transactions in the development which occurred during the month. The profit reflected is gross – it has not accounted for the applicable seller’s stamp duties, interest payable, taxes and other relevant divestment costs.
#Annualised gains is the compounded annual rate of return which shows the rate of return over the time period between the point of resale and the property’s last caveated transaction, expressed in annual percentage terms. The formula for determining this is simply: [(current resale price) / (purchase price)] time period in years-1
Analysis was done based on available data from URA Realis

The most profitable project, Pebble Bay, a waterfront condominium project in Tanjong Rhu (District 15), recorded 22 resale transactions in the year, achieving gains of $1.1 million on average for each transaction. The project is located along the Kallang river basin with unblocked views of the National Stadium and Kallang river. The development is also right next to the Tanjong Rhu MRT station along the Thomson-East-Coast (TEL) line which will be completed in 2024.

Suburban condo projects dominate top 10 most popular projects 
With the dwindling supply of unsold mass market homes in 2022, many buyers have been dipping into the resale market to purchase homes. In 2022, by ranking the projects in terms of resale volume, the top 10 transacted projects comprised mainly of Outside Central Region (OCR) projects (see Table 2). Many of these projects are almost brand new and are mostly in good physical condition – a plus for owner occupiers looking to move in quickly.

In terms of gains, these projects pale in comparison to the top 10 most profitable projects (in Table 1 above), since many of them were recently-built and have been bought at higher entry prices than the older projects. Also, most of them likely had relatively shorter holding periods, which offered a shorter runway for value to appreciate.

Table 2: Top 10 resale condo projects^ in terms of number of units transacted
 

Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (data up to 13th December 2022)

^projects with fewer than 20 transactions in the month are excluded from this analysis
*Gains are derived from the resale transaction for each unit against the unit’s last caveated transaction; the average profit is determined on the profits of all resale transactions in the development which occurred during the month. The profit reflected is gross – it has not accounted for the applicable seller’s stamp duties, interest payable, taxes and other relevant divestment costs.
#Annualised gains is the compounded annual rate of return which shows the rate of return over the time period between the point of resale and the property’s last caveated transaction, expressed in annual percentage terms. The formula for determining this is simply: [(current resale price) / (purchase price)] time period in years-1
Analysis was done based on available data from URA Realis

The top-selling resale project was Sims Urban Oasis, a fairly new project that was completed in 2017. The project in Eunos in District 14 sold 90 units on the resale market in 2022, with average gains of nearly $190,000 or average annualised gains at 3% per year.

The second top selling project was a CCR project, D’Leedon which shifted 89 units on the resale market. The resale units that were sold in 2022 enjoyed average gains of more than $350,000 per transaction and average gains of 1.7% per year.

Meanwhile, the third most popular project was a CCR waterfront development, Reflections at Keppel Bay which sold 76 units in 2022. However, the average gains in the project had amounted to a loss of nearly $180,000 per transaction, meaning most units in the project had sold at a minor loss in 2022.

Central districts posted best gains in 2022
On a district level, the central region pulled in bigger gains in terms of profit quantum. By ranking of the gross profit, the top 10 districts were mostly in the city centre or city fringe – only two districts in the suburbs, D26 (Upper Thomson) and D22 (Jurong) made the top 10 rankings (see Table 3).

Table 3: Top 10 districts for resale condo transactions in 2022 by gross gains*
 

Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (data up to 13th December 2022)

*Gains are derived from the resale transaction for each unit against the unit’s last caveated transaction; the average profit is determined on the profits of all resale transactions in the development which occurred during the month. The profit reflected is gross – it has not accounted for the applicable seller’s stamp duties, interest payable, taxes and other relevant divestment costs.
#Annualised gains is the compounded annual rate of return which shows the rate of return over the time period between the point of resale and the property’s last caveated transaction, expressed in annual percentage terms. The formula for determining this is simply: [(current resale price) / (purchase price)] time period in years-1
Analysis was done based on available data from URA Realis

District 10 was the most profitable district in 2022, where a number of transactions fetched eye-watering gains. Projects located in prestigious neighbourhoods such as Ardmore Park and Balmoral had helped to boost average profit in the district. In 2022, 629 homes in District 10 were sold on the resale market, with an average profit of more than $800,000 per transaction.

Meanwhile, the second most profitable district was District 21 (Upper Bukit Timah), where 324 homes were transacted for an average profit of more than $650,000 per transaction. A number of condominium projects along Bukit Timah Road have garnered decent gains – finding favour with buyers who like the city fringe location, and proximity to good schools.

Coming in at third place, District 15 (Katong, Joo Chiat) achieved over 900 resale condo transactions, with an average gross profit of more than $540,000 per transaction. Owners of homes along the East Coast stretch have been enjoying decent gains with the gradual gentrification of the area and the improvement in transport infrastructure, such the Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL).

District 26 is another locale which has benefited from the newly-constructed TEL MRT line which commenced its phase 3 operations in November 2022 – linking commuters to Orchard Road and the central business district. Slightly less than 70 homes in the upper Thomson area were resold at an average gross profit of more than $500,000 per transaction. Also, the launch of Lentor Modern at benchmark prices of some $2,100 psf have helped to boost prices of resale projects in the vicinity.

City centre and waterfront developments had the most expensive resale condos
Expectedly, the priciest resale condos were transacted at the city centre and waterfront housing areas.

Table 4: Top 5 transactions with highest price quantum by region in 2022
 

Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (data up to 13th December 2022)

In 2023, the most expensive resale transaction was for a penthouse unit at Tomlinson Heights which went for $23 million. This transaction is also the top deal for the CCR (see Table 4).

Over at the city fringe, the most expensive resale unit sold in 2023 was a 23rd storey unit at Reflections at Keppel Bay, which transacted for $19 million in May 2022. This luxury waterfront project is arguably the most expensive RCR project, occupying all top 5 spots in PropNex’s list (see Table 4). Its popularity may stem from the project’s proximity to the future Greater Southern Waterfront precinct, which will be an iconic development in Singapore.

In the suburbs, the most expensive resale condo unit was found at Clementi Park, an older development built in 1985 by CDL. The 7th floor unit which spans over 6,000 sq ft – a generous floor area that is a rarity in today’s market – had fetched $6.5 million or $1,080 psf.

Table 5: Top 5 transactions with highest unit price ($PSF) by region in 2022
 

Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (data up to 13th December 2022)

In terms of unit pricing, the most expensive transaction on a per square foot ($psf) basis was for an 8th floor unit at Le Nouvel Ardmore which was sold for $5,800 psf, based on the sale price of $22 million over 3,840 sq ft of space (see Table 5). The project is located at the heart of District 10, in the prestigious Ardmore Park area, and it is just minutes away from the Orchard Road shopping belt. This transaction is a record high for the project - far surpassing the previous record set in September 2021, where a similar sized 9th floor unit went for a unit price of $4,804 psf.

In the city fringe, the resale price for a unit at Corals at Keppel Bay had crossed the $3,000-psf mark. The 4th floor unit - with a floor area of slightly less than 3,000 sq ft - was sold for $9 million, translating to a unit price of $3,008 psf. Completed in 2016, Corals at Keppel Bay is another luxury waterfront development in the RCR.

Over in the suburbs, the most expensive transaction on a per square foot basis was for a 9th floor unit at Seaside Residences. Condos at the newly-completed Seaside Residences have been selling at unit prices over the $2,000-psf mark. The top transaction was for a 786-sq ft unit which changed hands for $1.78 million, reflecting a unit price of $2,265 psf. Residents of this project enjoy unblocked waterfront views of the East Coast Park beach and excellent connectivity, being next to the East Coast Parkway (ECP) and the upcoming Siglap MRT station on the TEL.

The private condo resale market is poised to shine further in 2023, was new supply completions inject fresh units into the resale market. It is estimated that more than 18,000 units (ex. ECs) could be completed in 2023. This will offer more buying opportunities in the resale market and will help to support pricing. Speak to PropNex’s experienced property agents to find out the best buys in the resale market today.

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