If your condo has been renting well and the valuation still looks healthy, you wouldn't even think about selling. Why would you even do that?

Well, there will be a wave of new completions in the coming years. And many owners do not consider this, or at least they don't do it early enough.

From 2020 to 2023, holding a condo felt like the obvious decision. Rents rose, vacancies tightened, and resale demand was supported by buyers who were priced out of new launches. But the market has shifted since.

Recently, URA announced in its June 2026 Government Land Sales (GLS) announcement that around 4,000 private homes (including ECs) will be added to the pipeline. That brings the total number of private homes expected to enter the market from around 57,000 units to roughly 61,000 units.

On its own, that number doesn't mean much. But take a look at when these homes are expected to be completed.

According to URA's Q1 2026 real estate statistics, around 27,300 units (including ECs) are expected to be completed by the end of 2028, with another 28,500 units coming from 2029 onwards. To put that into perspective, only 7,996 units were completed in the whole of 2025.

In other words, the number of homes due for completion between now and the end of 2028 is about 3.5 times the total completed in 2025.

So why should current owners care about this?

Essentially, if you're planning to sell or rent out your home in the next few years, you may not be competing with just the projects around you today. You'll also be competing with thousands of brand-new homes entering the market at around the same time. More choices for buyers and tenants usually mean tougher competition for existing owners.

Of course, this does not mean every owner should rush to sell. Some should hold. Some cannot sell yet without taking a painful SSD hit. But if your plans rely on today's rental income and resale demand holding up through 2027 and 2028, you might need to rethink some things.

For now, it seems that rents have recovered since the 2024 losses, with rental index going up 0.3 per cent from 160.9 in Q4 2025 to 161.4 in Q1 2026. But, given that most of the new supply has yet to arrive, how long can that recovery hold?

Of course, no one can predict how the market will react for sure. We can only assume that there's a big possibility rents will moderate again once the new supply comes in. So this is another thing owners need to consider.

Vacancy rates also tell a mixed story. At the end of Q1 2026, the vacancy rate for completed private homes, excluding ECs, stood at 6.2 per cent. That was slightly higher than the 6.0 per cent recorded in the previous quarter, although still below the 6.9 per cent seen in Q3 2025.

Vacancy also varies by region. It was highest in the CCR at 8.2 per cent, followed by the RCR at 6.3 per cent and the OCR at 5.2 per cent. So an OCR owner should not look at the overall market and assume the same risks as a landlord in the CCR. The impact of new supply will depend heavily on where the property is located.

Regardless, more completed homes usually mean more choice for tenants and less room for landlords to push rents. This may not immediately appear as a sharp fall in the rental index. It could first show up as longer marketing periods, more bargaining, or tenants asking for a discount because a newer unit is available nearby.

Even if selling before the completion wave makes sense, SSD could make an early exit too costly.

For properties bought on or after 4 July 2025, SSD applies for four years, starting at 16 per cent in the first year and falling 4% each year after that. On a $2 million property, that could mean as much as $320,000 in SSD.

So if your property is still within the SSD timeline, you need to calculate whether selling earlier still leaves you better off. On the other hand, owners who are already SSD-free have more flexibility to decide based on the outlook for their unit, rather than the tax cost of exiting.

Selling before the completion wave may sound like a smart exit, but you still need somewhere to go next.

You could sell at a good price, only to find that your next home requires a bigger loan, comes with less space, or is in a less desirable location. That is why the gain on your current property means little until you compare it with the cost of your next move.

For some owners, selling and renting temporarily may make sense. Others may choose to right-size, while landlords with a healthy rental yield may still be better off holding.

When you hear "supply wave", you might think "price crash". But don't be so quick to jump to such conclusions.

All in all, private home prices still rose 0.9 per cent in Q1 2026, with the CCR, RCR and OCR all recording gains. Buyers have not disappeared. It's just that sellers may face more competition as new homes are completed.

Whether you should hold or sell depends on the unit you own and your next move. So before the 2027 and 2028 completions arrive, ask yourself these questions:

1. Is your property still within the SSD period?

   Selling early may trigger an SSD which will eat into your gains. Check exactly when your SSD period ends before making a move.

2. How will your unit compare with the new competition?

   Think about your unit's age, layout, location, MRT and school access, tenure, and scarcity. Then look at how many newer projects are completing nearby.

3. How much rent could your unit realistically achieve in a more competitive market?

   More choices for tenants could mean longer marketing periods and more bargaining. Be realistic about the rent your unit can achieve, rather than assuming current rates will continue.

4. How much would you walk away with if you sold now and what can your proceeds do for you next?

   Gross profit is always flattering, but you need to account for CPF refunds, outstanding loan, SSD (if applicable), and the cost of your next home. That final figure will tell you whether selling now genuinely puts you in a better position.

At the end of the day, your decision should be deliberate. Do not sell simply because more supply is coming, but do not hold by default either.

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