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January 02, 2024
New Launches Helped To Prop Up Private Home Prices In Q4 2023; Growth In HDB Resale Prices Continued To Moderate, Flash Estimates Showed
Q4 2023 URA Private Residential Property Index (Flash)
Flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that overall private home prices rose by 2.7% QOQ in Q4 2023, accelerating from the 0.8% QOQ increase in the previous quarter (see Table 1). Cumulatively, overall private home prices have risen by 6.7% in 2023 – moderating from the 8.6% price growth in 2022.
Price Indices | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 (Flash) | Q4 2023 |
(QOQ % Change) | (YOY % Change) | (QOQ % Change) | (YOY % Change) | |||||||
Overall PPI | 0.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 6.7 |
Landed | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 1.1 | -3.6 | 4.5 | 7.8 |
Non-Landed | -0.3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 6.5 |
· CCR | -0.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -2.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 |
· RCR | -2.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 9.7 | 4.4 | -2.5 | 2.1 | -1.2 | 2.7 |
· OCR | 2.2 | 2.1 | 7.5 | -2.6 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 13.8 |
Source: PropNex Research, URA
In the landed homes segment, prices staged a swift recovery in Q4 2023, growing by 4.5% QOQ – overturning the 3.6% QOQ decline in the previous quarter. This is the strongest quarter of price growth since Q1 2023 where landed home values rose by 5.9% QOQ. The price increase could be supported by the slight rise in detached house transactions which rose from 39 units in Q3 to 43 units in Q4 2023, according to URA Realis caveat data. The average price of detached house which rose by about 16% QOQ to $1,714 psf on land area in Q4 could have mitigated the weaker prices in the semi-detached and terrace house segments. The price growth in Q4 takes the overall landed home price increase to 7.8% in 2023 - down from 9.6% in 2022.
Meanwhile, the non-landed homes segment saw a 2.2% QOQ price growth in Q4 2023, following a similar 2.2% increase in the previous quarter. The strengthening in non-landed home prices came about as new project launches in the Core Central Region (CCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) helped to spur price growth.
Table 2: Top-selling new private homes in Q4 2023 (ex. EC)
Project | Region | Units sold | Average $PSF price |
J'DEN | OCR | 327 | $2,475 |
HILLOCK GREEN | OCR | 132 | $2,123 |
WATTEN HOUSE | CCR | 114 | $3,209 |
LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES | OCR | 44 | $2,116 |
THE RESERVE RESIDENCES | RCR | 40 | $2,444 |
Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (data till 24 December 2023)
Non-landed prices in the CCR climbed by 4.2% QOQ, reversing the 2.7% QOQ decline in the previous quarter. This is the largest quarterly price growth in the CCR since Q1 2018, where prices increased by 5.5% QOQ. Prices of homes in the CCR were propped up by new launch project Watten House which sold 114 units in Q4 2023 at an average price of $3,209 psf. In addition, caveat data also showed that some projects achieved higher average unit prices QOQ in Q4 2023 - they included Klimt Cairnhill which transacted 13 units at an average price of $3,509 psf, and Midtown Modern which sold 13 units with prices averaging at $3,098 psf.
Over in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), non-landed home prices dipped by 1.2% QOQ in Q4, compared with the 2.1% QOQ increase in the previous quarter. The lack of fresh project launches in the RCR in Q4 2023 likely stymied price growth in this sub-market. The top-selling project in the new sales segment in Q4 was The Reserve Residences, which saw 40 units changed hands at an average price of $2,444 psf. RCR non-landed home prices rose by 2.7% in 2023 – easing from the 9.7% growth in 2022.
The URA said 3,800 private homes (up till mid-December) have been sold in Q4 2023, compared with 5,201 units in the previous quarter. It added that sales transaction volume (up to mid-December) came up to 18,510 in 2023 versus 21,890 in 2022.
Based on caveats lodged and URA figures, PropNex estimates that developers sold about 6,400 new private homes (ex. EC) in the year-to-24 December period, and new home sales will underperform the 7,099 new homes (ex. EC) sold in the full-year 2022. Meanwhile, some 10,850 resale private homes (ex. EC) have been sold over the same period – private resale volume is also expected to come in below the 14,026 units resold in 2022.
Please attribute the comments below to Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty.
“Overall, private home prices still posted a relatively healthy gain of 2.7% QOQ in Q4 2023, and 6.7% in 2023. It has been a relatively challenging year in 2023, as market sentiment turned more cautious and buyers are more hesitant to make their move, especially towards the later part of the year. The high interest rates, muted economic growth, and cooling measures introduced in April have combined to tame sales volumes.
That being said, the private residential market has been resilient, and we feel that Q4 2023 offered some bright spots – J’den and Watten House performed well above expectations, Hillock Green garnered encouraging sales, and Lentor Hill Residences which was launched previously continued to move units at a steady clip amid the ample supply of new homes in the Lentor area. We think the market still has ample liquidity to deploy and many buyers are waiting for the project that would tick as many boxes as possible, fulfilling most, if not all their top priorities for a home, and at a realistic price.
Based on the caveat data, we note that the median unit price of new non-landed private homes sold in the CCR and OCR rose QOQ by more than 9% each in Q4 2023 – most likely helped by the sales at J’den and Watten House during the quarter (see Table 3). Meanwhile, the median unit price of non-landed resale private homes rose across all segments – but average resale unit prices are still substantially lower than that of new sales (41% to 58% price gap). To this end, we expect resale homes to continue to enjoy stable demand in view of their more affordable pricing.
Table 3: Median unit price ($PSF) of non-landed new private homes and resale private homes (ex. EC) by Quarter and by Region
Non-landed private new home sales median $PSF price | |||
| CCR | RCR | OCR |
2023Q1 | $2,926 | $2,651 | $2,073 |
2023Q2 | $2,905 | $2,493 | $2,024 |
2023Q3 | $2,910 | $2,507 | $2,080 |
2023Q4 | $3,199 | $2,495 | $2,276 |
Q4 QOQ % change | 9.9% | -0.5% | 9.4% |
Non-landed private home resale median $PSF price | |||
| CCR | RCR | OCR |
2023Q1 | $2,114 | $1,658 | $1,317 |
2023Q2 | $2,096 | $1,687 | $1,369 |
2023Q3 | $2,001 | $1,710 | $1,385 |
2023Q4 | $2,087 | $1,768 | $1,438 |
Q4 QOQ % change | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% |
Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (data till 24 December 2023)
Given the subdued home sales in 2023 and stronger pipeline of new launches in 2024, we expect developers to price units more sensitively, in a bid to drive sales momentum at the launch weekends. With the tighter additional buyers’ stamp measures keeping investors and foreign buyers at bay, home sales in 2024 will be driven by owner-occupiers and the local market.
In Q4 2023, foreign buyers (non-PR) accounted for 1.9% of the total non-landed new sale and resale private home transactions, according to caveats lodged (see Table 4). This represents a slight increase from the 1.8% in Q3 2023, but is still much lower than the 7.3% and 4.2% proportion in Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 respectively. The proportion of Singaporean buyers, meanwhile, rose further to 81.8% in Q4 2023 from 81.5% in the previous quarter.
Table 4: Non-landed new private home sales and non-landed resales (Ex. EC) by nationality by residential status by Quarter
Nationality by Residential Status | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2023Q4 |
Company | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Foreigner (NPR) | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
Singapore Permanent Residents (PR) | 18.0% | 17.1% | 15.9% | 20.8% | 19.9% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 16.3% |
Singaporean | 78.7% | 77.9% | 79.2% | 71.8% | 72.2% | 79.5% | 81.5% | 81.8% |
Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis (data till 24 December 2023)
For 2024, PropNex expects private home prices to potentially increase by 3% to 4%, while new home sales could come in at 7,000 to 7,500 units (ex. EC); private residential resale volume may hover at around 13,000 to 14,000 units.”
Q4 2023 HDB Resale Price Index (Flash)
The flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) showed that resale prices of public housing flats climbed by 1.0% QOQ in Q4 2023, easing slightly from the 1.3% QOQ increase in the previous quarter (see Table 4). This marks the 15th straight QOQ growth in the HDB Resale Price Index. Cumulatively, HDB resale prices have risen by 4.8% in 2023 – moderating from the 10.4% growth in 2022.
The HDB said that 6,440 resale flats were transacted in Q4 2023 (up to 28 December) – dipping by 2.3% QOQ from 6,592 HDB flats resold in Q3 2023 (up to 28 September). In the year-to-28 December period, the resale volume came in at 26,628 units – down by 3.8% from 27,686 transactions in the same period in 2022.
Table 5: HDB Resale Price Index
Quarter | QOQ % change | YOY % change |
Q1 2021 | 3.0% | 8.1% |
Q2 2021 | 3.0% |
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