Lunar New Year And Bto Launch Weighed On Hdb Resale Market In February

Going by transaction trends in the past years, HDB resale activity in February has tended to be among the slowest months in each year. There may be a few possible reasons for this - February being a short month, festivities and celebrations when the Lunar New Year falls in February, as well as the build-to-order (BTO) sales launch which happens during the month. And it appears to be shaping up the same way in February 2024.

Sales data showed that the HDB resale volume fell by nearly 19% month-on-month to 2,134 units in February from 2,625 units in the previous month (see Chart 1). On a year-on-year basis, resale transactions were up by 16% from the 1,837 flats resold in February 2023. Apart from the Lunar New Year holidays, the new flats offered in the HDB’s February BTO exercise could also have drawn some buyers from the resale market. In view of the softer resale volume, the overall average resale price dipped by 1% MOM to $585,589 in February, but was higher YOY, rising by 6.1% from February 2023.

The HDB launched 4,126 new flats across seven BTO projects for sale during the month. Of note, more than 80% of the BTO flats offered have a waiting time of less than 3 and a half years – shorter than the waiting times of more than 4 to 5 years previously, as completion timelines were affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The shorter waiting times could have made BTO flats more attractive among some buyers who want a brand new flat but do not wish to wait too long to get the keys to their new home.

Chart 1: HDB resale volume and average transacted price by month

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

Table 1: Average transacted HDB resale flat prices by Flat Type in last six months

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

By flat type, the average resale price of larger flats fell MOM, whereas the 3- and 4-room flats posted marginal price increase from January to February by 1% and 0.4% respectively (see Table 1). The average resale price of 5-room flats dropped by 2.9% MOM to about $692,000, while that of executive flats fell by 2.6% MOM to over $843,000 in February. The declines could be due to the higher base in the previous month with the 5-room and executive flats both achieving MOM price growth in January.

Evaluating the sales data by towns and flat types, it was found that the average resale prices of several flat types posted MOM declines in February. In mature estates, the average resale price of 4-room, 5-room, and executive flats eased by 1.7%, 1.5% and 1.3% MOM respectively (see Table 2). Meanwhile, over in the non-mature towns, the average resale price of 5-room units declined by 2% from January to February. 

Table 2: Average transacted HDB resale flat prices in Mature and Non-mature towns

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

In February 2024, mature towns made up the top 3 lists of estates in PropNex’s ranking of average transacted resale prices on a per square foot basis ($PSF) by flat types (see Table 3). The highest average PSF price for 4-room flats in February was $878 psf in Queenstown, while the Central Area and Bukit Timah achieved the highest average unit resale price for 5-room flats and executive flats in during the month at $1,227 psf and $808 psf, respectively.

Table 3: Top 3 towns by Average $PSF transacted price by flat type in February 2024 (and corresponding price in previous month)

Source: PropNex Research, data.gov.sg 

Chart 2: Proportion of HDB Resale Transactions by Price Range

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg 

Based on the resale transaction data, about 33.2% of resale flats sold in February were priced at below $500,000, compared to 33% in the previous month. Meanwhile, about 64.4% of the flats resold in February were priced at between $500,000 and just under $1 mil – up slightly from 64.2% in January. The proportion of resale flats sold for at least $1 million made up 2.3% of February’s sales – falling from 2.8% in the previous month (See Chart 2).

Following a record-breaking month of million-dollar resale flat transactions in January – 74 deals – the sales of such flats slowed in February, with 50 resale flats fetching at least $1 million each (see Chart 3). Of the 50 flats, two units are in non-mature estates Hougang and Woodlands, while the rest are in mature towns – Queenstown, Toa Payoh, Kallang Whampoa, Bukit Merah, Ang Mo Kio, Bukit Timah, Clementi, Central Area, Serangoon, Bishan, Bedok, Pasir Ris, and Geylang. They comprise 21 units of 5-room flats, 15 units of 4-room flats, 13 units of executive flats, and a 3-room resale terrace flat in Jalan Ma’mor.  

Chart 3: Number of “Million-dollar” HDB Resale Flats sold By Month

Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg

The priciest HDB resale flat sold in February was an executive flat in Bishan which fetched $1.48 million. The 172-sq m (1,851 sq ft) unit is located on a floor ranging from the 22^nd to 24^th storey and has a remaining lease of over 67 years (see Table 4). A 3-room terrace flat in Jalan Ma’mor also made the list when it was resold for $1.28 million. The 208-sq m (2,239 sq ft) terrace flat has a lease balance of more than 47 years.

Half of the million-dollar flats resold in February span 120 sq m (1,292 aq ft) and above, while 44% of them are located on the 19^th storey or higher. Although the number of such flats has risen over time, they will continue to account for a small fraction of total sales, given that these flats tend to have unique characteristics.

Table 4: Top 10 HDB resale flats sold in February 2024 by Transacted Price

 Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov.sg