Bayshore: Reimagining Beachfront Living

Article by Bryson Chew & Jean Choo

Amidst a flurry of estate renewal plans announced in 2023, one that has perhaps captured the imagination of many home buyers is the masterplan for Bayshore, which flanks the East Coast Park beach. The government announced in October that the new Bayshore estate will offer about 10,000 homes, of which 7,000 units will be set aside for public housing and the remaining 3,00 0 will be private residential units.

The 60-hectare Bayshore estate is in a choice location, with the potential to offer homes with unblocked sea views. It enjoys excellent connectivity, being served by two upcoming MRT stations (Bayshore and Bedok South on the Thomson-East Coast Line), and future residents will be able to tap new amenities to be built in the estate, not to mention existing recreational offerings at the East Coast Park beach.

For prospective home buyers seeking beachfront living, the Bayshore masterplan is much welcomed because there haven’t too many new private residential launches nor public housing projects in the area for some years. Much of the existing housing in the vicinity are older condo projects and aging HDB flats. The last new launch condo project in the area was Seaside Residences in 2017 (sold-out as of October 2021), while the most recent HDB build-to-order (BTO) project offered nearby was Bedok South Horizon in November 2016.

What lies ahead?

For those who bemoan a lack of new housing in Bayshore, 2024 is a year to watch. The HDB is set to offer the first two BTO projects in Bayshore – likely under the Plus flat model – while a private residential site has been placed on the Reserve List of the government land sales programme for the first half of 2024.  

Further afield, Singapore’s East Coast could look very different, in a good way. The government has said that it will embark on studies for a decades-long project involving reclamation works along the coastline. Known as Long Island, the 800-ha reclaimed site will provide coastal protection – addressing concerns of rising sea levels – as well as offer new housing and recreational facilities.  

Taken together, it would be fair to say there could potentially be substantial upside potential for properties located along the East Coast. But how have Bayshore home prices performed so far? PropNex Picks looks at four condo developments within the Bayshore planning subzone, to find out how home values have held up. They are selected owing to their proximity to the new Bayshore estate, sizeable development size, as well as the number of resale transactions in the past year (2022 – Oct 2023).

Source: PropNex Research, OneMap

Here are some details about the Bayshore condo projects:

Bayshore Park

Bayshore Park – completed in 1986 – is a 99-year leasehold condominium comprising 1,083 units. The average resale unit price ($PSF) achieved in 2023 to end-November was $1,280 psf from the 19 resale units transacted. Since 2003, prices at Bayshore Park have seen a growth of 209% in average unit price (see Chart 1), according to caveats lodged.  

Costa Del Sol

Meanwhile, Costa Del Sol traded 21 units on the resale market between January and end-November 2023, fetching an average transacted price of $1,684 psf. In 2023, the average unit price at Costa Del Sol has increased by 90% over its average new sale/sub-sale unit price of $886 psf in 2003. Costa Del Sol, a 99-year leasehold project comprises 906 units and it was completed in 2004.   

The Bayshore

The Bayshore is a 99-year leasehold development comprising 1,038 units. The project which was completed in 1999 saw 40 homes being resold in 2023 (till end-November). Based on URA Realis caveats, The Bayshore achieved an average resale price of $1,277 psf in 2023, marking a growth of 152% in the average unit price from $506 psf in 2003.

The Summit

Over at The Summit – a 242-unit freehold condo project – there were five resale transactions from January to end-November 2023 which garnered an average price of $1,548 psf, based on the caveat data. The average unit price at The Summit in 2023 has risen by 195% from $525 psf back in 2003.

All four developments have generally maintained an upward price trajectory over the last two decades and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic – suggesting that Bayshore homes enjoy stable demand and decent capital appreciation amid the gradual gentrification of the neighbour over the years. Another factor that has helped to support home prices could be the enhancement in public transport infrastructure, with the progressive opening of the Thomson-East Coast Line and an upcoming station in Bayshore.

A profit analysis of the four developments has also been performed, with findings summarised in Table 1. Most resale units sold between Jan 2022 to Nov 2023 have been profitable and had average holding periods of more than 10 years (between 11 and 17 years).  The average annualised return for all four projects’ resale transactions ranged from 3.8% to 5%, with an average profit ranging between $396,000 and over $920,000.

What are potential prices of new homes in Bayshore?

Without a crystal ball and the uncanny ability to time travel, there is no way to say with any certainty how prices will trend, and we could only infer from historical data. Based on URA Realis caveats, the average unit price of new private homes sold in the Bedok Planning Area – where Bayshore is located – was $2,092 psf in 2023 (till 30 Nov). Meanwhile, the average resale price at Seaside Residences, being one of the newest projects in Bedok Planning Area - was $2,166 psf in 2023. With all the hype and excitement around the upcoming Bayshore estate, it quite likely that prices of private homes there could trend above current levels.

In bidding for land and pricing units, developers will assess the affordability threshold of the population in the area – which could present a healthy source of upgraders’ demand.

Assuming a homebuyer is planning to purchase a $2 million-dollar property at 75% Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit, at a 30-year loan tenure with 4% interest rate, the minimum monthly household income required would be just over $13,000, based on the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework – which stipulates that the borrower’s monthly mortgage repayment does not exceed 55% of the borrower’s monthly household income.

According to the income profile of residents in the Bedok Planning Area, over 35% of resident households have a gross monthly income above $13,000, (see chart 5), and would be able to afford a residential property priced at $2 million on today’s loan terms. It also suggests considerable purchasing power of households residing in Bedok – some of whom could potentially be looking at buying a new home in the future Bayshore estate.

Furthermore, it is plausible that some home owners may consider selling their present property in Bayshore to unlock the capital gains accumulated over the years and reinvesting the proceeds to purchase a new apartment in the new Bayshore town. In a nutshell, this new waterfront precinct can be expected to draw plenty of attention when the first housing projects are launched. If you are hoping to gain a first-move advantage in the upcoming Bayshore estate, speak to a PropNex agent today and start planning.