01 July 2024, Singapore - Flash estimates released today showed that private residential property prices saw slower growth in Q2 2024 amidst muted private home sales, while HDB resale flat prices rose at a faster clip from Q1 to Q2 2024 as transaction volume rose. Meanwhile, the number of HDB resale flats that changed hands for at least $1 million hit yet another new high in Q2 2024, with two transactions fetching record resale price. The final print for the quarterly real estate statistics will be released on 26 July 2024.

Q2 2024 URA Private Residential Property Index (FLASH)

Flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that overall private home prices rose by 1.1% QOQ in Q2 2024, marking the fourth straight quarterly increase following the 1.4% QOQ increase in Q1 2024, 2.8% QOQ growth in Q4 2023, and 0.8% QOQ uptick in Q3 2023, and (see Table 1). The slower price growth came as private home sales were relatively flat in Q2 2024. Based on the flash estimates, private home prices have risen by a cumulative 2.5% in 1H 2024, slower than the 3.1% increase in 1H 2023.

Table 1: URA Private Property Price Index

Source: PropNex Research, URA

A slight price growth was observed in the non-landed private homes segment in Q2 2024, where prices crept up by 0.9% QOQ, based on the flash estimates. Within the non-landed homes segment, private home prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) fell marginally by 0.2% QOQ, perhaps owing to the higher base in the previous quarter, where CCR prices climbed by 3.4% QOQ. By contrast, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) saw non-landed private home prices rise by 2.2% QOQ and 0.3% QOQ, respectively in Q2 2024. It appears that prices in the OCR could possibly be peaking in view of two quarters of marginal growths in Q1 and Q2 2024.

Meanwhile, the prices of private landed homes climbed by 1.8% QOQ in Q2 2024 as per flash estimates - representing the third consecutive quarter of price increase for landed homes. Cumulatively, landed home prices have climbed by 4.5% in 1H 2024, compared with 7% in 1H 2023. According to URA Realis caveat data, the average transacted unit price of detached homes, semi-detached homes, and terrace houses all rose from Q1 to Q2 2024, with sales volumes rising across all three landed home segments.

The URA said that the overall private home transaction volume in Q2 2024 (up to mid-June) came in at 4,215 units- relatively on par with the 4,230 units in Q1 2024. Looking at the URA Realis caveats data and monthly developers' sales data, PropNex notes that private housing developers sold 694 new private homes (ex. EC) in Q2 2024 (till 23 June). The top-selling new private residential projects in Q2 2024 were The Botany at Dairy Farm which sold 85 units, Hillhaven which shifted 61 units, and Lentor Hills Residences, where 55 units were transacted, based on caveats lodged. With a lack of project launches, developers' sales look unlikely to cross the 1,000-unit mark in Q2 2024. Factoring the 1,164 units shifted in Q1 2024, developers sold over 1,850 new units (ex. EC) in the year-to-23 June 2024 period.

Over in the private residential resale market, URA Realis caveat data showed that 3,073 private homes (ex. EC) were resold in Q2 2024 (till 23 June) - already surpassing the 2,689 resale private homes transacted in Q1 2024. One factor that is supporting resale demand is perhaps the sizable price gap between new sales and resale homes, with the latter seen as more affordable by some buyers. According to caveats lodged, the overall median transacted unit price gap between new private homes (landed and non-landed, ex. EC) at $2,243 psf and that of resale private homes at $1,675 psf was 34% in Q2 2024.

Mr Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty:

"Private home sales, particularly developers' sales have been muted, and this is largely due to the limited number new project launches in Q2 2024. Many of the fresh launches during the quarter have been boutique developments that offer fewer units, while the project with the largest number of units launched in Q2 was the 190-unit Skywaters Residences, which is at the top-end of the market and unlikely to fit the budget of most buyers here. Meanwhile, The Hill @ One North, has sold about 30% of its 142 units since its launch in April 2024.

Apart from the lack of major launches in the quarter, we think some buyers may also be holding out for more projects to come onstream later in the year, so that they can widen their options. Based on our observations from the numerous consumer seminars, and property expo talks that were conducted in the past months, there is still a lot of interest in private residential properties, but prospective buyers are seeking more clarity on how prices will move, and also to check out other projects, as more new launches come on the market.

Some of the new projects that could be rolled out in Q3 2024 include Sora in Yuan Ching Road, Kassia in Flora Drive, Emerald of Katong in Jalan Tembusu, The Chuan Park, Arina East Residences in Tanjong Rhu, the Bukit Timah Link project, Meyer Blue, and Union Square Residences which can collectively offer more than 3,300 new private residential units.

In view of the slow sales in Q2, PropNex has revised downwards our projection for new private home sales to around 6,000 to 6,500 units (ex. EC), from our initial forecast of 7,000 to 7,500 units (ex. EC). We remain optimistic that developers' sales will pick up in Q3 2024, as several more sizable projects are expected to be launched for sale. For the full year 2024, we project that the overall private home prices could rise by 4% to 5% - slowing from the 6.8% increase in 2023.

Table 2: Non-landed new private home sales and non-landed private home resale (ex. EC) by nationality by residential status by Quarter

Nationality by Residential Status	2022Q1	2022Q2	2022Q3	2022Q4	2023Q1	2023Q2	2023Q3	2023Q4	2024Q1	2024Q2
Company	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Foreigner (NPR)	3.1%	4.9%	4.7%	7.2%	7.2%	4.2%	1.8%	1.8%	1.2%	2.1%
Singapore Permanent Residents (PR)	18.0%	17.1%	15.9%	20.8%	19.9%	16.1%	16.7%	16.4%	16.3%	19.3%
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